Investors who piled into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds over the last year are facing a harsh reality check. According to analysis from Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, the average purchase price for these ETF holders hovers around $90,200. With Bitcoin currently trading near $84,000, the typical buyer since January 2024 is now sitting on a paper loss of approximately $5,000 per coin, placing them roughly 7% underwater.
While retail ETF investors are feeling the pinch, institutional giants are still in the green, though their cushion is shrinking. Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), which manages the largest corporate treasury of digital assets, holds its Bitcoin reserves at an average cost basis of $76,020. This leaves the company with a profit of roughly $8,000 per coin, representing a 12% gain. Between Strategy’s holdings and the various ETFs, these entities control approximately 10% of the total Bitcoin supply, making their profitability levels a significant psychological factor for the broader market.
Critical Support Levels under Siege
Market analysts are closely watching the $84,500 mark, a price point that has historically acted as a crucial line of defense. Data from previous cycles suggests that the average cost basis often serves as major support during corrections. In September 2024, when Bitcoin dipped below the average ETF purchase level, the asset consolidated before mounting a robust recovery. A similar dynamic played out in early 2025 during a tariff-induced selloff.
However, the current technical setup indicates this safety net is fraying. Major drawdowns have consistently slowed at this level in the past, effectively preserving the bullish market structure. A sustained drop below $84,500 could signal a profound shift in momentum, potentially invalidating the bullish thesis entirely. Bitcoin has already shed 2.5% on the day and is down nearly 8% from its recent highs, confirming a weakening technical posture.
Bearish Signals and Downside Targets
The technical breakdown is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Price action has been compressing within a wedge pattern for several weeks, and the recent breakdown is a classic bearish signal that often precedes further losses. Bitcoin is currently trading below all four key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) in a bearish formation, with the 20 EMA sitting at $89,056—nearly $5,000 above the current price. This gap highlights the severity of the momentum shift.
Immediate support is identified around the $82,500 to $83,000 range, which aligns with the measured target from the wedge breakdown. Should that level fail, the next major floor is $80,000, a psychologically significant price that has arrested declines in previous corrections. Analysts warn that a breach of $80,000 could trigger panic selling, potentially opening the door to a slide toward the $75,000 to $78,000 range. To regain bullish footing, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the breakdown level near $88,000 and push back above the 20 EMA.
Broader Crypto Market Sees Red
The bearish sentiment is not isolated to Bitcoin; Wednesday morning trading sessions show a sea of red across the wider digital asset landscape. Leading altcoins are posting significant losses, reflecting the broader hesitation in the market. Ethereum has notably retreated, sliding 3.47% to trade at $1,949.61, down from the previous day’s $2,019.71. Similarly, crypto exchange-traded products are taking a hit, with top crypto ETPs dropping 2.8% to 8.52 EUR, marking a performance decline of over 7% since their initial listing.
Other major tokens are following the downward trajectory. Litecoin has slipped to $51.91, a loss of 2.64% from the prior day. Bitcoin Cash is down 1.77% to $514.90, while Ripple has shed 2.38% of its value, falling from $1.40 to $1.367. The sell-off extends to the Solana ecosystem as well, with the token dropping 2.39% to $80.90, and Avalanche decreasing by 2.24% to $8.547. Chainlink and Sui have also booked losses, falling 3.21% and 3.50% respectively.
Mixed Movement Among Smaller Caps
Amid the general downturn, a few assets are showing resilience or stagnation rather than capitulation. Monero managed a slight uptick, gaining 0.14% to reach $344.85. Meanwhile, some legacy coins are simply treading water; Cardano remains virtually unchanged at $0.2551, and Dogecoin is hovering flat around $0.0904. Conversely, Stellar and Tron could not escape the negative pressure, with Stellar falling 2.77% to $0.1539 and Tron dipping 1.23% to $0.2744. Binance Coin also faced selling pressure, trading 3.62% lower at $597.10. As the market tests critical support levels, all eyes remain on whether the major institutional entry points will hold or if further liquidation lies ahead.
